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Healthcare’s Coming Black Swan Events

Home/Healthcare News/Healthcare’s Coming Black Swan Events

Healthcare’s Coming Black Swan Events

by Dave Chase | Forbes | August 23, 2015

Healthcare’s Coming Black Swan Events

Sovereign Solutions Editor’s Note:

The linked piece stands for itself. Please do yourself a favor and read it.

What is quite interesting is that it is not just with healthcare that we each ought to be made aware of significant probability of black swan events. The financial, currency, and stock markets, if you have not noticed, are not tenable.

Big things are bound to happen and already are, below the surface, for those willing to look.

Among many things discussed in this piece is the assertion that many hospitals count on people not challenging bills. Such may change. 

Another item discussed is the growing possibility that non-profit designated medical organizations will be losing that synthetic advantage. Many of these things will affect your healthcare prices, we believe, to your benefit. But you and others may have to act.

The fact of the matter is this: some black swan events are going to dramatically alter the healthcare landscape. The result will be a lot of flotsam and jetsam in the healthcare marketplace and new paradigms or ways of doing things.

Are you ready for the black swan events? 


Healthcare industry incumbents comfortable with their seemingly intractable position are mostly oblivious to an unprecedented array of “A” players with sophisticated investment capital behind them jockeying to undermine their most profitable lines of business. The new entrant’s goal is to accelerate healthcare’s trillion-dollar disruption by showing how much higher performance the system can be when outcomes are aligned with financial rewards.

[Disclosures: I’m advising Healthfundr which provides Seed stage funding to provide “picks and shovel” companies supporting the healthcare organizations seeking to out-perform incumbents on the Quadruple Aim. I’m a Transformer-in-Residence for StartUp Health. I also advise Cascadia Capital, an investment bank focused on healthcare, on their healthcare strategy. Directly or indirectly, all of these organizations seek to accelerate the shift to a higher performing health ecosystem.]

A Black Swan event is thought to be a surprise and without precedent at the moment it occurred. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, it becomes obvious that the event was bound to happen. The originator of the concept, Nassim Taleb, states that whether a black swan event is surprising depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher. Naturally, the objective is to “avoid being the turkey” by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to “turn the black swans white.”

Oliver Wyman’s healthcare practice advises incumbents they should be playing 70% offense and 30% defense (i.e., shoring up existing operations). Many observe incumbents to be playing 5% offense and 95% defense. That Zero Sum Game mentality will be the cause of great regret when they miss out on major new opportunities following in the footsteps of their local oligopoly brethren (newspapers).

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Do you have any objections, thoughts, concerns, or contributions? I REALLY WANT TO KNOW. Help me to make this a conversation!

Together we can map out better solutions and truly navigate clearer paths towards quality services, low prices, and better lives.

Oh! And as always, if you find this post useful, do me and so many others a huge favor. When it comes to this kind of information: share and share alike! Information is meant to be disseminated wide and far.

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By | 2017-03-28T10:28:30-04:00 September 25th, 2015|Categories: Healthcare News|Tags: , , |0 Comments

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My name is Matthew. I am founder of and manage Sovereign Liberty Solutions. I am a proponent of free, voluntary association and expression. I understand that there is no single exception or excuse to violate this with the initiation of force, fraud, and coercion. I welcome a genuine dialogue & seek information, news, analysis, and, of course, solutions, whether it be on the individual level or a more voluntary association [group] or even "national" one.

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